Where’s El Nino?
There goes el nino!
Politicians like to pretend that climate is pretty straightforward… especially when their climate predictions benefit their pet projects or campaign fund-raising. This year especially, they like to pretend that there is such a thing as ‘big oil’– a faceless giant, destroying the planet, unless the President of the US sweeps in to save the day by ‘kicking ass.’ Of course, only OUR asses will end up being kicked, through the double-whammy of higher energy prices (from cap and tax legislation), higher unemployment (from higher business taxes and other expenses that stifle growth), and higher taxes at the gas pump and on April 15th. Funny how something so unpredictable– like climate– is so closely paired with something so predictable– like the current administrations love for government and tax revenue.
I came across this paragraph this morning from the Browning Newsletter:
Amazing. It was the vanishing act that completely changes this year’s climate. The El Niño disappeared!
More Amazing. Last winter’s El Niño has already been one for the record books. It usually takes a year or more for the Tropical Pacific to gradually warm up from a cool La Niña to a balmy El Niño. Instead, last year the ocean flipped from one to the other in only three months. By June, the trade winds had weakened, the ocean waters had warmed and the globe began to experience typical El Niño weather.
Amazing continues. Now, against all expectations, the Pacific waters have cooled equally rapidly.
To say that this development is a surprise is an understatement. It was completely unexpected. Until mid-March, most oceanologists were expecting the Pacific to cool and the El Niño to fade out by June. Most models then predicted that the Pacific would remain neutral for the rest of the year. Instead, the temperatures plummeted and the El Niño was gone by the end of March. By the end of April, the temperatures had dropped from above average to below average. By now, the temperatures are -0.9°C (-1.6°F) below normal – technically cold enough to be classified as a La Niña if the cool temperatures continue.
For the full report, click here.
You’ll note that the consequences of this dramatic cooling will include more intense weather in some parts of the country and world, and less intense weather elsewhere. It’s complicated. It’s too complicated, unfortunately, for reporters to understand, so it will be ripe for picking by those with an agenda. The violent weather will be blamed on global warming– even when the actual cause is global cooling in another part of the world.
Don’t assume, just because someone has a microphone, that he/she knows more than you; If you read the Browning Newsletter, I promise you that you will know more than any newscaster you’ll see on television.
